New research suggests that warm weather alone won’t reduce the spread of coronavirus this summer.
If you’re holding out hope that warmer weather will slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, you may be disappointed this year. While some lab experiments show that increased temperature and humidity may reduce the viability of SARS-CoV-2, chances are that won’t happen until more people have been infected with the virus.
A June 2 blog by Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, describes a series of sophisticated computer simulations conducted by experts on infectious disease transmission and climate modeling. The researchers developed a mathematical model to simulate how seasonal changes in temperature might influence the trajectory of COVID-19 in cities around the world.
“This research team found that humans’ current lack of immunity to SARS-CoV-2—not the weather—will likely be a primary factor driving the continued, rapid spread of the novel coronavirus this summer and into the fall,” writes Collins.
In a study published in the journal Science, the researchers explored 3 different scenarios based on what’s known about the role of climate in the spread of other viruses, including 2 coronaviruses that are known to cause common colds.
“In all 3 scenarios, their models showed that climate only would become an important seasonal factor in controlling COVID-19 once a large proportion of people within a given community are immune or resistant to infection,” reports Collins. “In fact, the team found that, even if we assume that SARS-CoV-2 is as sensitive to climate as other seasonal viruses, summer heat still would not be enough of a mitigator right now to slow its initial, rapid spread through the human population.”
Over the longer term, as more people develop immunity, the researchers suggest that COVID-19 may fall into a seasonal pattern. In the meantime, the studies indicate that control measures like physical distancing, in combination with warm temperatures, might slow the spread of the virus.
“It’s a reminder that physical distancing will remain our best weapon into the summer to slow or prevent the spread of COVID-19,” Collins concludes. “So, keep wearing those masks and staying 6 feet or more apart.”