Germany’s 1.6% fatality rate has nothing to do with luck.
More than 100,000 people in Germany have contracted COVID-19. But the percentage of fatal cases has been “remarkably low” compared with neighboring countries, according to a recent report in The New York Times.
Germany’s 1,584 COVID-19 deaths put the country’s fatality rate at only 1.6%, compared with 12% in Italy; 10% in Spain, France, and Britain; 4% percent in China; nearly 3% in the United States; and 1.8% in South Korea.
Why have Germans been so lucky? Luck, it seems, has nothing to do with it.
Instead, epidemiologists and virologists point to “early and widespread testing and treatment, plenty of intensive care beds, and a trusted government whose social distancing guidelines are widely observed,” according to Times correspondent Katrin Bennhold.
Testing and tracking: Germany is conducting around 350,000 free coronavirus tests a week. This has allowed the country to slow the spread of the pandemic by isolating known cases while they are infectious and to provide lifesaving treatment more quickly. By the end of April, health authorities plan to roll out a large-scale antibody study, which will teat random samples of 100,000 people across Germany every week to gauge where immunity is building up.
A robust public health care system: German hospitals have expanded their intensive care capacities. In January, Germany had 28,000 intensive care beds equipped with ventilators, or 34 per 100,000 people. By comparison, that rate is 12 in Italy and 7 in the Netherlands. Now, there are 40,000 intensive care beds available in Germany.
Trust in Government: Finally, some observers believe that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership is one reason the fatality rate has been kept low.
“Ms. Merkel, a trained scientist, has communicated clearly, calmly, and regularly throughout the crisis, as she imposed ever-stricter social distancing measures on the country,” writes Bennhold. “The restrictions, which have been crucial to slowing the spread of the pandemic, met with little political opposition and are broadly followed.”