The novel coronavirus will be with us for a long time, according to 2 analyses.
If you thought the COVID-19 pandemic would be a distant memory by Labor Day, think again.
Models developed by Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, suggest that we’ll be managing the current pandemic “over months to a couple of years,” according to a recent report in The New York Times.
Instead of envisioning a single round of social distancing, like the one we’re now experiencing, Times writer Siobhan Roberts suggests that we manage our expectations by viewing the pandemic as “a wave that just keeps rolling and rolling, carrying on under its own power for a great distance.”
Roberts examines findings from 2 recent analyses co-authored by Lipsitch. A paper from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota describes 3 possible scenarios for the pandemic over the next 18-24 months:
- The initial wave of cases we’re now experiencing will be followed by a consistently bumpy ride of “peaks and valleys” that will gradually diminish over 1 or 2 years; or
- The current wave will be followed by a larger peak this fall or winter, with subsequent smaller waves after that; or
- Our current, intense spring peak will be followed by a “slow burn,” with less-pronounced ups and downs.
A second paper from the Chan School and published in Science projects similar peaks and valleys, and shows 3 scenarios for how COVID-19 infections might respond to intermittent social distancing.
Social distancing is tied to number of cases: To prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed, social distancing would be “turned on” when the number of COVID-19 cases reached certain levels, like 35 cases per 10,000 people, and “turned off” when cases dropped to lower levels, like 5 cases per 10,000. There would be a gradual increase in population immunity.
The virus becomes seasonal: The virus could become seasonal, with a slower spread during warmer months. This seasonality would have minimal effect this year, “since a large proportion of the population will still be susceptible to the virus come summer,” writes Roberts.
Hospital capacity doubles: The virus becomes seasonal and the critical-care capacity in hospitals doubles. In this case, social distancing would kick in at a higher threshold, with even longer breaks between social distancing episodes.